Published Oct 24, 2002

There's nothing like interviewing 50 mostly first-time candidates for the Legislature to turn fret about the state's fiscal condition into real worry. I worry because too many of them don't.

A $3 billion deficit? In a biennial budget now set to rise to $30 billion? Aw, that's not so tough, some candidates say.

"We've just got to stop wasting the money," said a south-suburban Republican. "We've got to spend it right. Cut out the waste. Get government out of areas where it has no business."

Hmmm. Where would that be? "Well, it's none of government's business to tell auto glass manufacturers they can't give rebates." Sorry, but that won't make a dime's difference in the state budget.

By contrast, a south-suburban DFLer says she is willing to raise taxes. Which ones? "I don't want to raise the income tax. But I would support doubling the cigarette tax. And I'm looking at raising the tax on liquor." That might take care of $200 million of the problem. What about the other $2.8 billion?

I omit these candidates' names because I like to protect the innocent -- and because they are not unusual. Starting with the leaders of this year's political packs, the fiscally tight-lipped gubernatorial candidates, there's a general reluctance to get too close to the budgetary gorilla. Who wants to run on a promise to cut services and raise taxes?

What's scary about many of the first-timers is that they appear to actually believe that this budget mess can be cleaned up with a few user-fee increases here and a few waste-and-duplication trims there. They say that they want to improve education funding and that they won't vote to raise taxes. They don't seem to realize that next session, it'll be one or the other, but not both.

A state budget seminar is in order, and I've got just the faculty: former Carlson administration finance commissioner Wayne Simoneau, former Ventura finance commissioner Pam Wheelock and former DFL Senate finance chair Gene Merriam.

Prof. Merriam: "The underlying cost-drivers for Minnesota government services were putting a strain on the budget, even before this recession. There are more people to educate, more elderly people who need care. People fail to realize how good the 1990s were, and how exceptional. Those surpluses won't be back anytime soon."

Prof. Wheelock: "Taking $3 billion out of this budget without raising taxes is not impossible. But would it be painful? Absolutely. You can't solve this on the backs of state agencies. It will mean reexamining the role state government plays in Minnesota's life."

Prof. Simoneau: "People have got to get over the idea that there's fat to be trimmed in state agency budgets. Any fat that was there was gone after the last session. I doubt they could find more than $50 million to trim . . . .

"The entire state agency payroll is $1.8 billion. You could shut down the whole operation and still have a deficit."

Our panel is agreed: If the deficit projection of $3 billion-plus holds, the next governor and the 2003 Legislature will wind up raising taxes and cutting spending.

Raise what? "You've gotta go where the gold is," said Simoneau. That's the income tax, rolling back the cuts of 1999 and 2000, or sales tax, putting it on business services or clothing. Fee increases won't do the job.

Cut where? Our panelists all say that the state could save money with a smarter distribution scheme for state aid to cities -- though some cities would surely respond by increasing property taxes.

Beyond that, their ideas diverge -- and get much tougher politically. Question high spending on health care at the end of life, Merriam says. Wheelock, ever a brave soul, says consider a means test on state aid to the disabled -- and while you're at it, look at decoupling special education from general education funding.

She further recommends allowing higher education to rely more on tuition revenue for operations, continuing the trend of recent years. But, she adds, the state's future depends on adequate investment in research at the University of Minnesota.

Chances are, next session's budget debate will turn around several of these options. Chances are, you won't see a word about them in the literature candidates leave at your door this weekend. If you can catch up with your friendly neighborhood legislative candidate, you might want to ask about them.

-- Lori Sturdevant is a Star Tribune editorial writer and columnist. She is at

>lsturdevant@startribune.com.

If you'd like to find out about one of the Pied Pipers who helped lure the lemmings off the cliff read my column about Darrell McKigney

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